Sunday, 4 October 2009

Markets: Q4 Earnings Season - The Marshmallow Test And Why You Should Never Overmix Metaphors....By Gareth Milliams


It's been a miserable year if you are a logical thinking, market fundamentalist. This bear market rally, based not upon return or results but upon exceeding extremely low expectations has broken all records.

It's like rewarding a kid who got an 'E' rather than an 'F' in his economics exam.

My portfolios have stayed away. This rally was always like trying to ride a rattlesnake. Logic told us that it could have reared up and bitten us at any time and my job is to protect my clients assets.

You've heard this all before. No doubt, you are sick of hearing how this is not a real rally and that the sky will fall in.

It hasn't.

But it will.

Probably.

Marc Faber says that "the longer a trend has been in place, the more cautious an investor should become". He is right. If this market had been in the midst of a bull rally, people would be screaming for a correction. But it isn't. Instead we are in the middle of the worst financial crisis in 75 years and people are desperate for this rally to continue onward and upward in order to make back their losses from 2008.

I have a tip for them.

Get out.

Get out now.

Before it is too late and this market corrects radically.

To my clients I say, "good things come to those who wait".

It's a bit like the marshmallow test. A child is left alone in a room with a marshmallow and told that he can eat it. However, if he waits, he can have two. The smart kids wait. The dumb kids eat the marshmallow. The dull kids then have to watch the shiny ones eat two.

We are waiting.

We shall have two marshmallows and the stupid kids can watch us eat!

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