Tuesday, 31 March 2009

The Crisis: America's Very Scary Credit Card Bill By Gareth Milliams

Back on March 7th I posted about the total financial cost of the bailouts and various fiscal stimuli of the Bush and Obama Administrations. Then the figure was a mere $11.623 trillion. As of today, the price has risen to $12.798 trillion.

So, in real terms what does this mean:

Firstly, it is a major worry for the EU and China. The EU, because it fears that an overly cheap dollar will make it less competitive. China worries because any reduction in the value of the dollar has a direct effect on the value of its treasury bills. Of these two trading blocs, China is the one to watch. Both the President and the Prime Minister of China have expressed concern regarding the US dollar to the extent where the idea of a new Reserve currency is gaining purchase.

March 30 (Bloomberg) -- Arkady Dvorkevich, Russia's chief economic adviser, said a partial return to the gold standard would help stabilize the world's currencies and introduce discipline, the Daily Telegraph said, citing remarks made by him.

Dvorkevich said inclusion of gold in a basket weighting of a new world currency, based on ``Special Drawing Rights'' and issued by the International Monetary Fund, would be an alternative to the U.S. dollar; Russia and China plan to introduce the idea at this week's G20 meeting and the economist said it was logical the ruble, the yuan and gold should be included in such a basket of currencies, the newspaper said.


It is improbable that there will be language confirming a new reserve currency on Monday morning, but I would be less surprised if there was a communique stating that was positive discussion on the matter. It could also mean a (very eventual) move back to the gold standard. This would suit the OPEC cartel and oil producing nations very well. This downturn has been particularly hard upon them. They depend upon a stable oil price to plan their infrastructure projects and to quell potential unrest.

If there is a broad agreement that a new reserve currency is worth further discussion, then expect China to take a strong lead. However, presently China holds a mere 1.1% of its Reserve in gold compared to an average of 10.6% amongst other emerging nations. This would have to change.



===========================================================
--- Amounts (Billions)---
Limit Current
===========================================================
Total $12,798.14 $4,169.71
-----------------------------------------------------------
Federal Reserve Total $7,765.64 $1,678.71
Primary Credit Discount $110.74 $61.31
Secondary Credit $0.19 $1.00
Primary dealer and others $147.00 $20.18
ABCP Liquidity $152.11 $6.85
AIG Credit $60.00 $43.19
Net Portfolio CP Funding $1,800.00 $241.31
Maiden Lane (Bear Stearns) $29.50 $28.82
Maiden Lane II (AIG) $22.50 $18.54
Maiden Lane III (AIG) $30.00 $24.04
Term Securities Lending $250.00 $88.55
Term Auction Facility $900.00 $468.59
Securities lending overnight $10.00 $4.41
Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility $900.00 $4.71
Currency Swaps/Other Assets $606.00 $377.87
MMIFF $540.00 $0.00
GSE Debt Purchases $600.00 $50.39
GSE Mortgage-Backed Securities $1,000.00 $236.16
Citigroup Bailout Fed Portion $220.40 $0.00
Bank of America Bailout $87.20 $0.00
Commitment to Buy Treasuries $300.00 $7.50
-----------------------------------------------------------
FDIC Total $2,038.50 $357.50
Public-Private Investment* $500.00 0.00
FDIC Liquidity Guarantees $1,400.00 $316.50
GE $126.00 $41.00
Citigroup Bailout FDIC $10.00 $0.00
Bank of America Bailout FDIC $2.50 $0.00
-----------------------------------------------------------
Treasury Total $2,694.00 $1,833.50
TARP $700.00 $599.50
Tax Break for Banks $29.00 $29.00
Stimulus Package (Bush) $168.00 $168.00
Stimulus II (Obama) $787.00 $787.00
Treasury Exchange Stabilization $50.00 $50.00
Student Loan Purchases $60.00 $0.00
Support for Fannie/Freddie $400.00 $200.00
Line of Credit for FDIC* $500.00 $0.00
-----------------------------------------------------------
HUD Total $300.00 $300.00
Hope for Homeowners FHA $300.00 $300.00
-----------------------------------------------------------
The FDIC’s commitment to guarantee lending under the
Legacy Loan Program and the Legacy Asset Program includes a $500
billion line of credit from the U.S. Treasury. (Thanks to Bloomberg.com)


So there we have it. Americas bill, yet unpaid. Years of gorging without thought to the cost has led us to where we are today. Others have shared the table but have been less greedy. Unfortunately, everybody shares the debt whether you have benefitted or not.

The real price that America will pay for its profligacy will be the debasement of its currency. The mighty dollar will be a memory for the next few years as America attempts to starve its corpulent economy in order for a fitter, smarter 21st century economy to emerge.

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