Wednesday, 25 February 2009

Investment:Time To Short The Shorts By Gareth Milliams

Let me be clear. This market cannot be trusted to provide even medium term gains in equities. However, with under an hour to go before market open in New York, it seems highly possible that the next few days could be positive. 

Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke in testimony to a Senate Panel yesterday calmed market fears by ruling out nationalisation and stating that he believed that 2010 could be a "year of recovery". This led to a strong market rally, which I believe could continue for a while longer.

Later in the evening President Obama made an upbeat speech to Congress 

"We will act with the full force of the federal government to ensure that the major banks that Americans depend on have enough confidence and enough money to lend even in more difficult times. And when we learn that a major bank has serious problems, we will hold accountable those responsible, force the necessary adjustments, provide the support to clean up their balance sheets, and assure the continuity of a strong, viable institution that can serve our people and our economy.

Washington is looking to calm the markets and I believe will succeed in doing so, at least until the Treasury's 'stress tests' begin.

The recent downward trend was fear based and partly driven by the financials. Fear based markets are always looking for hope and it is in the nature of the market that it looks to go ever upward. 

Therefore I have sold all Ultrashort holdings in order to protect the integrity of the portfolios.

I may be wrong. But I'd rather be wrong and sell early than buy at a bad time.


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