I Am A Director Of An Offshore Investment Brokerage In Tokyo. Believe Me, There Is No Better Job. This Blog Consists Of Investment Notes Sent To Clients And Random Thoughts On The Markets. Hope That You Enjoy It!!
Wednesday, 25 February 2009
Investment:Time To Short The Shorts By Gareth Milliams
Investment: Gold Mining Stocks Are Massively Oversold - A Casey Chart
| February 24, 2009 |
Positive investor sentiment towards the shiny metal has returned with a vengeance over the last year, evident in the global shortages of gold bullion and the 22% increase in holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust GLD. However, the companies that actually find and produce the metal have been caught up in the general equities sell-off that began last October.
Gold stocks have certainly bounced back from their October lows, but are still nowhere near their levels of last March. With oil, one of the major input costs for mining companies, trading at a third of its March 2008 levels and gold poised to surpass $1,000 an ounce, profit margins for gold miners are ready to go through the roof.
Monday, 23 February 2009
Investment: Selling Tickets For The Titanic
Why? Why in this market, in this, the first great depression of the 21st century, are there still people that trust the markets to the point of spurning liquidity.
Why are there people who will invest hard earned into assets where they have no possibility of getting out of their investments when they choose to do so?
Forget monthly traded funds. I hate weekly traded funds!
L-I-Q-U-I-D-I-T-Y!
I'm not saying don't invest. Quite the opposite. I'm saying look carefully at the structure of your holdings. Give yourself the option to get out of the asset when you choose, not when your broker or your fund manager decides that it is convenient.
There are great opportunities out there. We have proved that constantly since 2008. We bought assets designed to cope with the worst case scenario, such as gold and Ultrashorts. We were long yen before it was fashionable and will be anti-dollar for a long time yet. The longer that the dollar stays strong against the worlds currencies (ex-yen), the greater the impact of its fall in value. The dollar is in a massive bubble from which the air must be let out slowly or it will burst and collapse.
So we'll stay strong with gold (NYSE:GLD) and maintain our holdings in shorts.
But what we'll never do, is buy weekly, monthly or quarterly traded funds. That'll be like owning a ticket on the Titanic.
Sunday, 22 February 2009
Investment: And Then There Are The Good Days...
Constant Broker 10th November 2008
To read the full article, click the link. http://theconstantbroker.blogspot.com/2008/11/in-20-years-as-financial-adviser-this.html
My job is never easy but can be very rewarding. The last year has been an amazing experience. So I'd like to take this opportunity thank all of my clients for their fantastic support during these trying times.
Friday, 20 February 2009
Investment: February Model Portfolio By Gareth Milliams
Group 1. Overweight. These are our top choices. Long term holds that we believe will provide secure profits within the present investment environment. Prices are good and general sentiment is positive.
Group 2. Underweight. This is where we see a trend occurring and the sector is oversold. Underweight accumulation only and a long term hold.
Group 3. Speculative/Watch list. Suspects rather than prospects we follow the sector to see if a positive pattern is taking shape. A little bit like chasing tornado's, we consider the environment around the sector to be more important than the asset at this stage. No purchase will be made as yet, but this group is followed very carefully.
Group 4. Bucket List. These assets have been relegated from a higher group and are being either sold or a sale is being considered.
Presently, the groups are composed of the following assets:
Group 1. Gold Bullion ETF (GLD) Double Gold ETF (DGP) or more interestingly HBU.TO. HBU is leveraged (so be careful) but is also denominated in Canadian dollars which I believe are a good buy. The great inflation is coming and as it does, the dollar will drop in value and gold will benefit.
The case for gold has now strengthened. This is what I believe could happen:
Gold will trade in a range over $1,000 per oz, and then break out beyond $1500 per oz before the end of the Summer with a possibility of $2000 within one year.
This is why it is our number 1 asset.

Group 2. Silver ETF (SLV) and Silver Wheaton (SLW). Despite gold's stellar performance, silver has returned growth of 25% YTD reducing the gold/silver ratio to less than 70. Whilst I feel positive about silver as a precious metal, I still have reservations about it as an industrial metal with worldwide demand continuing to slow.
Silver Wheaton is a company which buys silver from mines that have it as a byproduct. They pay for the mining company to dig it out and then buy it from them at a maximum price of $3.90 per ounce. Its a great business plan and in a rising market SLW will outperform SLV.
NUCL, Cameco. The nuclear industry has been devastated over the last year. Uranium (UX308) hit a peak of $138 per pound in a speculative bubble and has now fallen to $47. But at this price the right uranium assets are good value. The industry has a secure and expanding future as demand for cheaper, cleaner power grows globally. Like the oil price, the cost of uranium is inevitably heading north. NUCL offers diverse access to the sector with miners, services and power companies.
Cameco is the worlds largest uranium mining company nicknamed the "Saudi Arabia of uranium". From a previous high above $55, this massive corporation has seen its stock drop to just over $14. It is Barrick Gold and Freeport McMoran rolled into one.
Remember, Group 2 is about underweight holdings for accumulation.
It is also more speculative. We have recently bought UltraShort ETF's. These are for the Russell 2000 Index (TWM) and Basic Materials (SMN). Basic materials includes chemical companies, miners and metals corporations such as Alcoa. The Russell 2000 Ultrashort targets the midcap index.
SMN has gained more than 59% and TWM just under 27% over a one year period. They are both 2xleveraged.
We expect both of these equity market indices to continue to fall over the medium term, providing our clients with excellent returns.
Group3. KOL. The coal sector has been ravaged during the slump. But it is America's primary source of power for its electricity and steel furnaces. America will begin generating more power in the next few years and 'King Coal' will be back in demand. At these prices with a longer term view, coal offers a real opportunity. However, the global slump is continuing and inventory is high.
USO/OIL. The two primary oil ETF's are futures based and can thus benefit from the present oil contango. However, this is a bubble that we think may burst with a possible fall into the
mid-twenties. There could be more severe cuts made by OPEC but we think that the oil speculators best friend (as ever) will be the weaker dollar.
These are great opportunities but not for now. Circumstances will provide me with greater context to purchase in the not too distant future.
Group 4. Nothing here at the moment. Maybe JPY could be a candidate, because it is extraordinarily strong versus dollar compared to AUD and CAD. These two currencies have a strong commodity component and have been given a good kicking by the USD over the last 5 months. These will be a buy and probably at the expense of JPY.
Wednesday, 18 February 2009
Markets: The Worlds Most Respected Companies By the Bespoke Investment Group
B.I.G. Tips - Barron's Most Respected Companies
Thursday, 12 February 2009
The Crisis: America Looks Within
It is the country which more than any other has lectured the world on democratic values that included building the greatest economic empire the world has ever seen. Free trade and freedom were fraternal partners in our red, white and blue world.
How times have changed. It is feasible that the USA will no longer be the free market that it once was for foreign exporters. The US may be preparing to erect trade barriers and willingly man them. This is nationalism borne out of fear. If ever a time existed for neighbours to trust each other and not watch idly by whilst their friends houses burn down, it is now.
As a global economy, we need to act in concert. Congress legislating against free trade can only hurt America and breed further resentment.
Ultimately, should America look inward, there will be other actors willing to take its place. Whether that be the EU, China or a new alliance, who knows? Hopefully cooler heads will prevail and President Obama will exercise a red pen and delete this amendment forever.
Gareth Milliams
Below is a chart and commentary by Casey Research.
| February 11, 2009 |
Soon to join recent Russian, Indian and Vietnamese tariffs is the “Buy American” clause contained in the forthcoming U.S. stimulus bill. If a mere 2.8% decline in world trade, compared to the 66% drop from 1929 to 1934, can spark the erection of trade barriers, is a rerun of the trade war set off by the U.S. Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930 far behind?
Tuesday, 10 February 2009
The Crisis: Gold Purchases Hit A Record High
Fear of falling into an economic abyss and concern about the future of the US dollar is helping to stimulate buying of gold.
Below is an article from the FT yesterday highlighting what looks like becoming a new gold rush.
Bullion sales hit record in rush to safety
By Javier Blas in London
Published: February 9 2009 18:16 | Last updated: February 9 2009 18:16
Investors are buying record amounts of gold bars and coins, shunning risky assets for the relative safety of bullion amid renewed fears about the health of the global financial system.
The US Mint sold 92,000 ounces of its popular American Eagle coin last month, almost four times that which it sold a year ago and more than it shipped during the whole of the first half of 2007.
Other countries’ mints have also reported strong sales. “Large purchases of coins are perhaps the ultimate sign of safe-haven gold buying,” said John Reade, a precious metals strategist at UBS.
Inflows into gold-backed exchange traded funds surged in January, pushing their bullion holdings to an all-time high of 1,317 tonnes. Last month’s flows of 105 tonnes were above September’s previous record of 104 tonnes, and absorbed about half the world’s gold mine output for January, said Barclays Capital.
“We estimate that investment demand [into gold] could double in 2009 compared to 2007,” said Mr Reade. “Purchases of physical gold have jumped over the past six months as investors’ fears about the current financial crisis ... have intensified.”
The move into gold is being driven by the very rich, with bankers saying that some clients are hoarding gold in their vaults. UBS and Goldman Sachs said last week that investor hoarding would drive prices back above $1,000 an ounce. On Monday gold was trading at $892 an ounce.
Traders and analysts said jewellery demand, historically the backbone of gold consumption, had collapsed under the weight of the high prices. Sharp falls in demand in the key markets of India, Turkey and the Middle East have capped the potential of any price rally. But the lack of jewellery demand has not discouraged investors.
Jonathan Spall, director of commodities at Barclays Capital in London, said: “We have seen more new enquiries about investing in gold so far this year than during the whole 2008.”
Philip Klapwijk, chairman of GFMS, the precious metal consultancy, said that investors were buying gold because of fears about the global financial system rather than looking for a quick gain.
“This is a new round of safe haven buying,” Mr Klapwijk said.
GFMS estimated bullion coin demand last year reached its highest level in 21 years.
Monday, 9 February 2009
The Economy: Another Lost Decade: Japan vs US By Gareth Milliams
I do not believe that it is enough for a government to buy bad bad assets and build more infrastructure. Even getting the banks to lend will take time. These stimuli must be combined with a strong series of tax cuts in order to encourage consumer spending. Domestic spending is the thinner that unclogs the arteries and allows the US economy to pump cash through its system revitalising that which was previously calcifying.
From Noriel Roubini,Is the U.S. a Japan 2? The Return of Japan’s “Free Fallin” Stag-Deflation and the Risks of a U.S. L-shaped near depression.
"Thus, even if the US were to do everything right and fast enough (on the monetary, fiscal, bank cleanup and household debt reduction) we would still have a severe two year U-shaped recession until early 2010 with a weak recovery of growth (1% or so that feels like a recession even if you are technically out of it) in 2010-2011. But if the US does not do it right this severe U-shaped US and global recession may turn into a nasty multi-year L-shaped near depression like the one experienced by Japan. We don’t have to go back to the Great Depression (when output fell over 20% and unemployment peaked over 25%); even a stag-deflation and Near-Depression like the Japanese one would be most severe for the US and the global economy. And while six months ago I was putting the odds of this L-shaped near-depression at 10% or so such odds have now risen to one third. So time is of the essence and the clock is working against US and global policy makers. The time to stop dithering is well past; and the time to implement a program of forceful, coherent, credible, globally-coordinated monetary, fiscal, financial clean-up and debt-resolution is now. The US and global economy are truly risking a near-depression if the policy reaction is not bold, aggressive, sustainable and credible".
From Doug Casey "Anatomy of Japan's "Lost Decade"
"The similarities between the U.S. now and Japan then derive from the big run-up in debt prior to the onset of economic crisis. Likewise, the reactions of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates to zero and using unconventional methods to buy assets to expand their balance sheets are much the same. Further, the central governments both went into deficit to support the economy. Fed up with low growth from the early 1990s, Japan experimented with quantitative easing between 2001 and 2006, adding $250 billion to its excess reserves. The U.S. has adopted the concept of quantitative easing with even more vigor and promises much more intervention than even Japan. Japan has taken almost two decades to do what the U.S. is planning to do in two years. What can we learn from these results? 1. Very little happened in Japan. From beginning to end, the Japanese government spent trillions in its various stimulus programs, including currency interventions, but the economy did not return to robust growth. The GDP after 1990 has stayed level, so the best that can be said is that their actions may have helped the country avoid a worse downturn. Other than temporarily, their interventions certainly didn’t help the Japanese stock market, which dropped from 38,000 in 1990 to 8,000, doubled from that level during the easing, then sank back to 8,000. One might, therefore, be tempted to conclude that the U.S., like Japan, could be in for a slow economy for a long time".
From Paul Krugman, New York Times, "On The Edge"February 5th 2009
"And deflationary traps can go on for a long time. Japan experienced a “lost decade” of deflation and stagnation in the 1990s — and the only thing that let Japan escape from its trap was a global boom that boosted the nation’s exports. Who will rescue America from a similar trap now that the whole world is slumping at the same time"?
Wednesday, 4 February 2009
Investment: When Aspirations Meet Reality By Gareth Milliams
This posting looks at the cold truth of pension funding and what is required to fund that income.
People will naturally delay contributing as long as possible by assuming that their incomes will continue to grow as their careers progress. Unfortunately, their commitments grow even faster as they accumulate spouses, children, property and general debt. Planning for retirement gets delayed and the cost of achieving what was relatively easy five years previously becomes prohibitive.
My clients are amongst the highest paid employees in the world. Many have incomes well in excess of $500,000pa by their late twenties.
Most see their career in banking ending by the time they reach 45 or 50 years old. At that point they would like to retire and lead a life of independence in total financial security.
Ask people what they would like to live on in retirement and most would consider half salary as acceptable. Lets assume that the half salary is $250,000pa.
I would then need to calculate the required lump sum in order to achieve the income target.
Assuming that I could get 5% at a bank and inflation was 3%pa, then that would leave me with a net 2%. This would mean I would need to plan for a lump sum of $12.500.000 to provide that income of $250,000pa.
Let me break the figures down:
$12,500,000 lump sum x 5%pa interest = $625,000pa gross
The components that make up the 5% are:
$12,500,000 lump sum x 3% inflation = $375,000pa
12,500,000 lump sum x 2% net return = $250,000pa income
Even $100,000 pa requires a nest egg of $5,000,000. This $5,000,000 is the value in todays money. If you are 40 today and are looking to retire at 55, then that figure becomes $7,800,000.
It is alarming at how underprepared people are for retirement. This is why we always recommend a multistrategy approach combining lump sums with regular savings. The combination of absolute return and compound growth does work if monitored professionally. It takes serious planning and commitment to create financial security.
If you haven't begun a plan, then the financial crisis is your friend. Its combination of heavily discounted markets and high volatility will enable you to play catch up.
Do something. Make it a priority and do it now.
Sunday, 1 February 2009
Investment: Will Oil Be The New Black? By Gareth Milliams


Abdalla el-Badri, OPEC secretary- general, said $70 to $90 a barrel is a “reasonable” oil price to support investment in new production.
“It’s a reasonable price where we can invest and that’s the most important thing for the world,” el-Badri said in a television interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos today. “We control 75 to 80 percent of the world reserves, we need to develop that reserve so we can have more supply to the world.”
"El-Badri said Opec members would have reached the group's pledge of a drop of 4.2 million barrels a day by the end of January.
After that "if we still have some downward problems, then Opec will not hesitate to take some quantity out of the market," he said".
Nobody is expecting a 73 style oil crisis but the crash in the oil price is hurting the oil producing nations. In Russia this weekend, there were violent protests over rising unemployment and food prices. It's not being discussed much at the moment, but even in the oil rich gulf, there are mass lay offs and retrenchment of skilled staff. Property prices are falling California style. The truth is, is that most of these nations require an oil price north of $50 per barrel just to maintain the status quo.OPEC has already cut production twice to little effect. This has created a contango in the crude oil market. Oil purchased Friday for $41.68 a barrel could immediately be sold through a forward contract for September delivery at a price of $52.85 a barrel. That’s a gross profit of 25% or more than $11 per barrel before storage costs.
In all probability it is this contango that is helping to create a (thus far) solid floor for the oil price at $40 plus. Lack of demand may push the price lower but that would engender an immediate retalitory response from OPEC, keeping the price high.
There is also a glut of crude oil sailing slowly around the Shetlands or parked up in tankers off Louisiana. However with the cost of at sea storage being less than a dollar per barrel per month,
oil bought at todays price and immediately sold for September delivery will garner a profit of $4 per barrel.
So how to benefit from this? The leading ETF is the United States Oil fund (USO). It seeks to reflect the performance, less expenses, of the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil. The fund will invest in futures contracts for WTI light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum based-fuels that are traded on exchanges. It may also invest in other oil interests such as cash-settled options on oil futures contracts, forward contracts for oil, and OTC transactions that are based on the price of oil. The fund is nondiversified.
The price of oil today reflects a recession and a global slowdown. In two years the price will probably be much higher due to greater demand and much lower production. The cost of a barrel of oil may well continue to drop but an opportunity now exists for long term profits.
In this situation, the investors best friend may prove to be the suffering property developers of Dubai.
Monday, 26 January 2009
The Crisis: The Guardian Names Names
Steve Eismann and Meredith Whitney are heroes. If you are one of the few that hasn't yet done so, please read Michael Lewis's article posted earlier this month in this blog.
http://theconstantbroker.blogspot.com/2008/12/markets-michael-lewiss-brilliant.html
Twenty-five people at the heart of the meltdown ...
The worst economic turmoil since the Great Depression is not a natural phenomenon but a man-made disaster in which we all played a part. In the second part of a week-long series looking behind the slump, Guardian City editor Julia Finch picks out the individuals who have led us into the current crisis
Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, who backed sub-prime lending. Photograph: Mark Wilson/Getty Images
Alan Greenspan, chairman of US Federal Reserve 1987- 2006
Only a couple of years ago the long-serving chairman of the Fed, a committed free marketeer who had steered the US economy through crises ranging from the 1987 stockmarket collapse through to the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, was lauded with star status, named the "oracle" and "the maestro". Now he is viewed as one of those most culpable for the crisis. He is blamed for allowing the housing bubble to develop as a result of his low interest rates and lack of regulation in mortgage lending. He backed sub-prime lending and urged homebuyers to swap fixed-rate mortgages for variable rate deals, which left borrowers unable to pay when interest rates rose.
For many years, Greenspan also defended the booming derivatives business, which barely existed when he took over the Fed, but which mushroomed from $100tn in 2002 to more than $500tn five years later.
Billionaires George Soros and Warren Buffett might have been extremely worried about these complex products - Soros avoided them because he didn't "really understand how they work" and Buffett famously described them as "financial weapons of mass destruction" - but Greenspan did all he could to protect the market from what he believed was unnecessary regulation. In 2003 he told the Senate banking committee: "Derivatives have been an extraordinarily useful vehicle to transfer risk from those who shouldn't be taking it to those who are willing to and are capable of doing so".
In recent months, however, he has admitted at least some of his long-held beliefs have turned out to be incorrect - not least that free markets would handle the risks involved, that too much regulation would damage Wall Street and that, ultimately, banks would always put the protection of their shareholders first.
He has described the current financial crisis as "the type ... that comes along only once in a century" and last autumn said the fact that the banks had played fast and loose with shareholders' equity had left him "in a state of shocked disbelief".
Politicians
Bill Clinton, former US president
Clinton shares at least some of the blame for the current financial chaos. He beefed up the 1977 Community Reinvestment Act to force mortgage lenders to relax their rules to allow more socially disadvantaged borrowers to qualify for home loans.
In 1999 Clinton repealed the Glass-Steagall Act, which ensured a complete separation between commercial banks, which accept deposits, and investment banks, which invest and take risks. The move prompted the era of the superbank and primed the sub-prime pump. The year before the repeal sub-prime loans were just 5% of all mortgage lending. By the time the credit crunch blew up it was approaching 30%.
Gordon Brown, prime minister
The British prime minister seems to have been completely dazzled by the movers and shakers in the Square Mile, putting the City's interests ahead of other parts of the economy, such as manufacturers. He backed "light touch" regulation and a low-tax regime for the thousands of non-domiciled foreign bankers working in London and for the private equity business.
George W Bush, former US president
President Clinton might have started the sub-prime ball rolling, but the Bush administration certainly did little to put the brakes on the vast amount of mortgage cash being lent to "Ninja" (No income, no job applicants) borrowers who could not afford them. Neither did he rein back Wall Street with regulation (although the government did pass the Sarbanes-Oxley Act in the wake of the Enron scandal).
Senator Phil Gramm
Former US senator from Texas, free market advocate with a PhD in economics who fought long and hard for financial deregulation. His work, encouraged by Bill Clinton's administration, allowed the explosive growth of derivatives, including credit swaps. In 2001 he told a Senate debate: "Some people look at sub-prime lending and see evil," he said. "I look at sub-prime lending and I see the American dream in action."
According to the New York Times, federal records show that from 1989 to 2002 he was the top recipient of campaign contributions from commercial banks and in the top five for donations from Wall Street. At an April 2000 Senate hearing after a visit to New York, he said: "When I am on Wall Street and I realise that that's the very nerve centre of American capitalism and I realise what capitalism has done for the working people of America, to me that's a holy place."
He eventually left Capitol Hill to work for UBS as an investment banker.
Wall Street/Bankers
Abi Cohen, Goldman Sachs chief US strategist
The "perpetual bull". Once rated one of the most powerful women in the US. But so wrong, so often. She failed to see previous share price crashes and was famous for her upwards forecasts. Replaced last March.
"Hank" Greenberg, AIG insurance group
Now aged 83, Hank - AKA Maurice - was the boss of AIG. He built the business into the world's biggest insurer. AIG had a vast business in credit default swaps and therefore a huge exposure to a residential mortgage crisis. When AIG's own credit-rating was cut, it faced a liquidity crisis and needed an $85bn (£47bn then) bail out from the US government to avoid collapse and avert the crisis its collapse would have caused. It later needed many more billions from the US treasury and the Fed, but that did not stop senior AIG executives taking themselves off for a few lavish trips, including a $444,000 golf and spa retreat in California and an $86,000 hunting expedition to England. "Have you heard of anything more outrageous?" said Elijah Cummings, a Democratic congressman from Maryland. "They were getting their manicures, their facials, pedicures, massages while the American people were footing the bill."
Andy Hornby, former HBOS boss
So highly respected, so admired and so clever - top of his 800-strong class at Harvard - but it was his strategy, adopted from the Bank of Scotland when it merged with Halifax, that got HBOS in the trouble it is now. Who would have thought that the mighty Halifax could be brought to its knees and teeter on the verge of nationalisation?
Sir Fred Goodwin, former RBS boss
Once one of Gordon Brown's favourite businessmen, now the prime minister says he is "angry" with the man dubbed "Fred the Shred" for his strategy at Royal Bank of Scotland, which has left the bank staring at a £28bn loss and 70% owned by the government. The losses will reflect vast lending to businesses that cannot repay and write-downs on acquisitions masterminded by Goodwin stretching back years.
Steve Crawshaw, former B&B boss
Once upon a time Bradford & Bingley was a rather boring building society, which used two men in bowler hats to signify their sensible and trustworthy approach. In 2004 the affable Crawshaw took over. He closed down B&B businesses, cut staff numbers by half and turned the B&B into a specialist in buy-to-let loans and self-certified mortgages - also called "liar loans" because applicants did not have to prove a regular income. The business broke down when the wholesale money market collapsed and B&B's borrowers fell quickly into debt. Crawshaw denied a rights issue was on its way weeks before he asked shareholders for £300m. Eventually, B&B had to be nationalised. Crawshaw, however, had left the bridge a few weeks earlier as a result of heart problems. He has a £1.8m pension pot.
Adam Applegarth, former Northern Rock boss
Applegarth had such big ambitions. But the business model just collapsed when the credit crunch hit. Luckily for Applegarth, he walked away with a wheelbarrow of cash to ease the pain of his failure, and spent the summer playing cricket.
Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin
Cioffi, pictured, and Tanninn were Bear Stearns bankers recently indicted for fraud over the collapse of two hedge funds last year, which was one of the triggers of the credit crunch. They are accused of lying to investors about the amount of money they were putting into sub-prime, and of quietly withdrawing their own funds when times got tough.
Lewis Ranieri
The "godfather" of mortgage finance, who pioneered mortgage-backed bonds in the 1980s and immortalised in Liar's Poker. Famous for saying that "mortgages are math", Ranieri created collateralised pools of mortgages. In 2004 Business Week ranked him alongside names such as Bill Gates and Steve Jobs as one of the greatest innovators of the past 75 years.
Ranieri did warn in 2006 of the risks from the breakneck growth of mortgage securitisation. Nevertheless, his Texas-based Franklin Bank Corp went bust in November due to the credit crunch.
Joseph Cassano, AIG Financial Products
Cassano ran the AIG team that sold credit default swaps in London, and in effect bankrupted the world's biggest insurance company, forcing the US government to stump up billions in aid. Cassano, who lives in a townhouse near Harrods in Knightsbridge, earned 30 cents for every dollar of profit his financial products generated - or about £280m. He was fired after the division lost $11bn, but stayed on as a $1m-a-month consultant. "It seems he single-handedly brought AIG to its knees," said John Sarbanes, a Democratic congressman.
Chuck Prince, former Citi boss
A lawyer by training, Prince had built Citi into the biggest bank in the world, with a sprawling structure that covered investment banking, high-street banking and wealthy management for the richest clients. When profits went into reverse in 2007, he insisted it was just a hiccup, but he was forced out after multibillion-dollar losses on sub-prime business started to surface. He received about $140m to ease his pain .
Angelo Mozilo, Countrywide Financial
Known as "the orange one" for his luminous tan, Mozilo was the chairman and chief executive of the biggest American sub-prime mortgage lender, which was saved from bankruptcy by Bank of America. BoA recently paid billions to settle investigations by various attorney generals for Countrywide's mis-selling of risky loans to thousands who could not afford them. The company ran a "VIP programme" that provided loans on favourable terms to influential figures including Christopher Dodd, chairman of the Senate banking committee, the heads of the federal-backed mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and former assistant secretary of state Richard Holbrooke.
Stan O'Neal, former boss of Merrill Lynch
O'Neill became one of the highest-profile casualties of the credit crunch when he lost the confidence of the bank's board in late 2007. When he was appointed to the top job four years earlier, O'Neal, the first African-American to run a Wall Street firm, had pledged to shed the bank's conservative image. Shortly before he quit, the bank admitted to nearly $8bn of exposure to bad debts, as bets in the property and credit markets turned sour. Merrill was forced into the arms of Bank of America less than a year later.
Jimmy Cayne, former Bear Stearns boss
The chairman of the Wall Street firm Bear Stearns famously continued to play in a bridge tournament in Detroit even as the firm fell into crisis. Confidence in the bank evaporated after the collapse of two of its hedge funds and massive write-downs from losses related to the home loans industry. It was bought for a knock down price by JP Morgan Chase in March. Cayne sold his stake in the firm after the JP Morgan bid emerged, making $60m. Such was the anger directed towards Cayne that the US media reported that he had been forced to hire a bodyguard. A one-time scrap-iron salesman, Cayne joined Bear Stearns in 1969 and became one of the firm's top brokers, taking over as chief executive in 1993.
Others
Christopher Dodd, chairman, Senate banking committee (Democrat)
Consistently resisted efforts to tighten regulation on the mortgage finance firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. He pushed to broaden their role to dodgier mortgages in an effort to help home ownership for the poor. Received $165,000 in donations from Fannie and Freddie from 1989 to 2008, more than anyone else in Congress.
Geir Haarde, Icelandic prime minister
He announced on Friday that he would step down and call an early election in May, after violent anti-government protests fuelled by his handling of the financial crisis. Last October Iceland's three biggest commercial banks collapsed under billions of dollars of debts. The country was forced to borrow $2.1bn from the International Monetary Fund and take loans from several European countries. Announcing his resignation, Haarde said he had throat cancer.
The American public
There's no escaping the fact: politicians might have teed up the financial system and failed to police it properly and Wall Street's greedy bankers might have got carried away with the riches they could generate, but if millions of Americans had just realised they were borrowing more than they could repay then we would not be in this mess. The British public got just as carried away. We are the credit junkies of Europe and many of our problems could easily have been avoided if we had been more sensible and just said no.
Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England
When Mervyn King settled his feet under the desk in his Threadneedle Street office, the UK economy was motoring along just nicely: GDP was growing at 3% and inflation was just 1.3%. Chairing his first meeting of the Bank's monetary policy committee (MPC), interest rates were cut to a post-war low of 3.5%. His ambition was that monetary policy decision-making should become "boring".
How we would all like it to become boring now. When the crunch first took hold, the Aston Villa-supporting governor insisted it was not about to become an international crisis. In the first weeks of the crunch he refused to pump cash into the financial system and insisted that "moral hazard" meant that some banks should not be bailed out. The Treasury select committee has said King should have been "more pro-active".
King's MPC should have realised there was a housing bubble developing and taken action to damp it down and, more recently, the committee should have seen the recession coming and cut interest rates far faster than it did.
John Tiner, FSA chief executive, 2003-07
No one can fault 51-year-old Tiner's timing: the financial services expert took over as the City's chief regulator in 2003, just as the bear market which followed the dotcom crash came to an end, and stepped down from the Financial Services Authority in July 2007 - just a few weeks before the credit crunch took hold.
He presided over the FSA when the so-called "light touch" regulation was put in place. It was Tiner who agreed that banks could make up their own minds about how much capital they needed to hoard to cover their risks. And it was on his watch that Northern Rock got so carried away with the wholesale money markets and 130% mortgages. When the FSA finally got around to investigating its own part in the Rock's downfall, it was a catalogue of errors and omissions. In short, the FSA had been asleep at the wheel while Northern Rock racked up ever bigger risks.
An accountant by training, with a penchant for Porsches and proud owner of the personalised number plate T1NER, the former FSA boss has since been recruited by the financial entrepreneur Clive Cowdery to run a newly floated business that aims to buy up financial businesses laid low by the credit crunch. Tiner will be chief executive but, unusually, will not be on the board, so his pay and bonuses will not be made public.
Dick Fuld, Lehman Brothers chief executive
The credit crunch had been rumbling on for more than a year but Lehman Brothers' collapse in September was to have a catastrophic impact on confidence. Richard Fuld, chief executive, later told Congress he was bewildered the US government had not saved the bank when it had helped secure Bear Stearns and the insurer AIG. He also blamed short-sellers. Bitter workers at Lehman pointed the finger at Fuld.
A former bond trader known as "the Gorilla", Fuld had been with Lehman for decades and steered it through tough times. But just before the bank went bust he had failed to secure a deal to sell a large stake to the Korea Development Bank and most likely prevent its collapse. Fuld encouraged risk-taking and Lehman was still investing heavily in property at the top of the market. Facing a grilling on Capitol Hill, he was asked whether it was fair that he earned $500m over eight years. He demurred; the figure, he said, was closer to $300m.
... and six more who saw it coming
Andrew Lahde
A hedge fund boss who quit the industry in October thanking "stupid" traders and "idiots" for making him rich. He made millions by betting against sub-prime.
John Paulson, hedge fund boss
He has been described as the "world's biggest winner" from the credit crunch, earning $3.7bn (£1.9bn) in 2007 by "shorting" the US mortgage market - betting that the housing bubble was about to burst. In an apparent response to criticism that he was profiting from misery, Paulson gave $15m to a charity aiding people fighting foreclosure.
Professor Nouriel Roubini
Described by the New York Times as Dr Doom, the economist from New York University was warning that financial crisis was on the way in 2006, when he told economists at the IMF that the US would face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, oil shock and a deep recession.
He remains a pessimist. He predicted last week that losses in the US financial system could hit $3.6tn before the credit crunch ends - which, he said, means the entire US banking system is in effect bankrupt. After last year's bail-outs and nationalisations, he famously described George Bush, Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke as "a troika of Bolsheviks who turned the USA into the United Socialist State Republic of America".
Warren Buffett, billionaire investor
Dubbed the Sage of Omaha, Buffett had long warned about the dangers of dodgy derivatives that no one understood and said often that Wall Street's finest were grossly overpaid. In his annual letter to shareholders in 2003, he compared complex derivative contracts to hell: "Easy to enter and almost impossible to exit." On an optimistic note, Buffett wrote in October that he had begun buying shares on the US stockmarket again, suggesting the worst of the credit crunch might be over. Now is a great time to "buy a slice of America's future at a marked-down price", he said.
George Soros, speculator
The billionaire financier, philanthropist and backer of the Democrats told an audience in Singapore in January 2006 that stockmarkets were at their peak, and that the US and global economies should brace themselves for a recession and a possible "hard landing". He also warned of "a gigantic real estate bubble" inflated by reckless lenders, encouraging homeowners to remortgage and offering interest-only deals. Earlier this year Soros described a 25-year "super bubble" that is bursting, blaming unfathomable financial instruments, deregulation and globalisation. He has since characterised the financial crisis as the worst since the Great Depression.
Stephen Eismann, hedge fund manager
An analyst and fund manager who tracked the sub-prime market from the early 1990s. "You have to understand," he says, "I did sub-prime first. I lived with the worst first. These guys lied to infinity. What I learned from that experience was that Wall Street didn't give a shit what it sold."
Meredith Whitney, Oppenheimer Securities
On 31 October 2007 the analyst forecast that Citigroup had to slash its dividend or face bankruptcy. A day later $370bn had been wiped off financial stocks on Wall Street. Within days the boss of Citigroup was out and the dividend had been slashed.
Kathleen Corbet, former CEO, Standard & Poor's
The credit-rating agencies were widely attacked for failing to warn of the risks posed by mortgage-backed securities. Kathleen Corbet ran the largest of the big three agencies, Standard & Poor's, and quit in August 2007, amid a hail of criticism. The agencies have been accused of acting as cheerleaders, assigning the top AAA rating to collateralised debt obligations, the often incomprehensible mortgage-backed securities that turned toxic. The industry argues it did its best with the information available.
Corbet said her decision to leave the agency had been "long planned" and denied that she had been put under any pressure to quit. She kept a relatively low profile and had been hired to run S&P in 2004 from the investment firm Alliance Capital Management.
Investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the New York attorney general among others have focused on whether the agencies are compromised by earning fees from the banks that issue the debt they rate. The reputation of the industry was savaged by a blistering report by the SEC that contained dozens of internal emails that suggested they had betrayed investors' trust. "Let's hope we are all wealthy and retired by the time this house of cards falters," one unnamed S&P analyst wrote. In another, an S&P employee wrote:
"It could be structured by cows and we would rate it."
Metals: Gold Silver Ratio By Gareth Milliams
The ratio is based upon the gold price divided by that of silver, with 0.75 being the present value. In a strong economy, look for silver to head toward 0.50.
I do expect silver to strengthen in the medium term versus gold to less than 0.70. However, gold is on a journey of its own with a possibility of $1000 per oz. beckoning.
Gold & Silver comparison and ratio in (red) | |
| |
Saturday, 24 January 2009
Investment: Overcoming Fear By Gareth Milliams
First of all, high levels of volatility are a perfectly normal market phenomenon. Extreme volatility happens in 7 year cycles. So lets look back from 2008:
2008 - Credit crunch, subprime crisis.
2001 - 8 months of negative growth from March 2001 until November.
1994 - Mexican Peso Crisis leads to a halt in capital inflows in emerging markets.
1987 - BLACK MONDAY! A 22.6% crash, even bigger than that of 1929. The savings and loan crisis also begins risking the homeloans of millions of Americans.
1980 - Inflation in the US surges to 14.76% and unemployment to 7.6%. In the US,
unemployment will eventually get close to 10%.
1973 - Oil crisis as the Arab states flex their economic muscle and the beginning of
what was(until then) the deepest recession since WW2.
1966 - A 16 year Bear market begins.
1959 - Final year of a recession which began in 1957. US autosales fell by 31% in 1957 and
correspondingly unemployment reaches 20% in Detroit.
I may have got carried away with this theory but for a reason. I want you to answer this question:
"Would investing during the recession of 1987 have been a good time to begin an investment? Or 1994? Or 2001?"
Of course it would. Anybody who'd started a long term investment in those years would have made a fantastic profit.
What stopped people from doing so? Irrational fear.
Why irrational? Because all recessions come to an end and buying now, whether with a lump sum or as part of a regular savings plan is to buy at high discount. US equities are now available at 1997 prices and the FTSE is trading as if it was 1996. These really are bargains.
The trick is always to be able to find perspective in chaos. During the Great Depression in 1932 at his inaugural address, Franklin Delano Roosevelt said “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself”.
Facing up to that fear will ultimately reap fantastic profits.
Friday, 23 January 2009
The Markets: How the Banks Never Fail to Disappoint
Below is a chart from www.caseyresearch.com which conversely highlights the massive cash injections into the Federal Reserve and the sharp reduction in lending since October 2008.
Lending money without strings is madness. TARP 2.0 must compel the banks to lend directly to small companies and banks. We know that we cannot trust the financial sector to lead us out of the mess that they caused, but they are still, our most efficient distributors of money.
This time though, they have to be completely accountable. Not a penny should be saved to bolster their coffers. It must all be used up in an effort to rescue the worlds economies.
| January 20, 2009 |
In other words, rather than lending the billions of dollars received from the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), as was originally intended, the recipient banks have squirreled away the bailout funds in order to shore up their balance sheets.
Concurrently, the Federal Reserve is exchanging its excess reserves for toxic waste from the financial institutions.
The combined affect is a “circular bailout” with the Treasury borrowing… in order to lend money to banks… that then lend it back by purchasing more Treasuries. Of course, the expense of this entire bailout scheme ultimately falls onto the back of the tax-paying public.
Wednesday, 21 January 2009
Investment: Doing Nothing By Gareth Milliams
We are monitoring the power commodities such as long coal, uranium and oil. Oil is still interesting because of its converse relationship with the US$. As the dollar weakens, oil strengthens and thus a strong dollar (as we have now) can push the oil price down.
Coal is the basic material that we have so much of but that we know will fall out of favour due to its ability to destroy the planet when burned. However, it is a plentiful resource and only a fool would ignore it.
Uranium shares are oversold with most stocks having experienced 80% plus losses. But it is the cleanest and most cost efficient fuel. I have a feeling that during his first State of the Union that President Obama will make a positive announcement regarding nuclear energy. He knows that America needs clean, cheap fuel and that nuclear energy gives China, India and France a competitive edge. After his first year, he will be much more subject to political mores and so needs to spend his political capital early. I may be wrong, but if I am right, then the ETF, NUCL will be an absolute buy.
Oil is falling in value on a daily basis. From $147 it now trades (as of today) at $41.15. It may drop further to less than $30, but it will breach $100 again on the back of global demand, speculation and a crippled dollar.
But for the moment, these are just on my watchlist. They will be added to my portfolio at some point. I do believe that what fuels the economy can drive our profits.
At this point I choose to do nothing. I am happy with where we are and can see no reason to buy or to sell. But doing nothing is hard. I look to myself to maintain discipline.
Investment:Transparency By Gareth Milliams
This posting however, is not about investment mistakes created by best intentions with the consent of the investor but of greed blinding best advice to consequences.
Truth always will out. In the last week, I have heard of Tokyo investors who bought shares in individual unquoted companies, that at that time had yet to produce a single penny in profit and that have now fallen by the wayside. Additionally, we may all know of friends and colleagues who bought properties in Australia and the UK, who have recently been told to provide additional security to the lender or be in breach of contract, because the Aussie Dollar and British Pound are crashing against the almighty yen. Other offshore brokerages in Tokyo have even been borrowing or cashing in investment portfolios and savings plans in order to finance deposits for investment properties that are now deeply underwater. There is a fine line between risk and moral hazard.
I am becoming more convinced every day that a code of conduct is required for those that advise expatriates upon investment. Not a generic set of regulations to encompass the industry, for that will neither be effective, nor adhered to. Instead, a published set of ground rules from each brokerage, explaining their philosophy and how they intend to interact with and protect their clients. Many firms already do this, including my company Pinnacle. We provide a ‘Letter of Understanding’ for our clients to sign that explains costs and ramifications under different scenarios when investing in savings plans.
We do this because we know that by protecting our clients we are also protecting ourselves and that is surely the best kind of regulation.
Friday, 16 January 2009
Investment: Capital Guaranteed Funds - An Expensive Oxymoron By Gareth Milliams
I do not nor have I ever felt that capital guaranteed funds were of benefit to anybody other than those who construct or sell them. They are a money making machine aimed at nervous investors.
This is also where I must make a concession. Nervous investors are people too and need somewhere to put their money. But, if they could see through their fear and get some perspective, this is what they would see:
1. The bank offering the guarantee (typically Barclays, Deutsche or another first tier brand) would not make the guarantee, if they felt that there was a cat in hell's chance of ever having to pay it out. Thus they do serious due diligence. Therefore, ultimately should the plan mature, the client is financing an internal bond issue for the bank to benefit from.
2. Because of the guarantee only between 50% and 65% of client money will be invested in the underlying fund.
3. If the guarantee is called upon (if the fund drops below the participation level for example), the investment will be converted to cash until the end of the 10-12 year fixed period. The client will then receive his original investment minus inflation.
4. But clients who invest only in the underlying fund, have the opportunity to remain vested and benefit from a comeback. How frustrating would it be, if your guaranteed fund was in cash, but the stand alone version of the exact same underlying asset was still trading and profitable?
Surely, if an institution considers an investment sound enough for it to back with its own paper and have its name marketed on the brochure, then that in itself is a certification of the quality of the underlying asset.
But the real benefit for the bank, is that they get to keep the bond element of the investment for themselves. This will (at least) equal the original total client contribution plus possibly any additional profit.
That's a massive return. But not for you.
Thursday, 15 January 2009
The Crisis: Its All The Fault Of Goldman Sachs (of course, who else?)
Conspiracy Theory, Exposed
The facts: Rumors appeared in print that traders in Goldman’s London unit tried to drive Bear’s stock down.
The conspiracy theory: Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street firms have held a grudge against Bear since 1998 when the company refused to join in the $3.6 billion bailout of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management. By spreading fear about Bear, Goldman stood to pick up some lucrative new clients. (Goldman’s response: “We went out of our way to be supportive of Bear Stearns.”)
The facts: Thain was a frequent adviser to Tim Geithner, who was then president of the New York Fed. Thain also worked as Goldman’s co-president under Paulson.
The conspiracy theory: To protect Thain’s sterling reputation (and Goldman’s too), Geithner and Paulson urged him to find a buyer immediately. If he hadn’t, Merrill would have followed Lehman Brothers into oblivion.
The facts: Paulson installed Goldman vice chairman Ed Liddy as A.I.G.’s new C.E.O.
The conspiracy theory: Had the insurance giant failed, Goldman would have lost big. It’s said to have $20 billion in A.I.G. exposure. (Goldman says any exposure is offset by collateral and hedges.) Liddy was put in to protect Goldman’s interests. When asked why A.I.G. was bailed out but not Lehman, Dick Fuld, Lehman’s C.E.O., told Congress, “Until the day they put me in the ground, I will wonder.”
The facts: Before its collapse, Lehman Brothers was looking for a capital infusion of roughly $6 billion. Unable to raise the money, the company filed for bankruptcy. The government’s bailout plan, which included $10 billion for Goldman, came in October, just three weeks after Lehman was allowed to fail.
The conspiracy theory: The government let Lehman go under to eliminate one of Goldman’s biggest competitors. Though Goldman’s write-downs were tiny relative to those of its competitors, it was nonetheless granted the $10 billion in the bailout to preserve its advantage.
The news: In September, with markets swooning, Goldman Sachs applied to become a bank holding company. The Federal Reserve quickly approved the move, allowing Goldman (and Morgan Stanley, which had also applied for the change) to take deposits backed by the F.D.I.C.
The facts: Over the summer, Lehman C.E.O. Dick Fuld considered converting Lehman to a bank holding company. After discussions with the Fed, Lehman didn’t apply for the change.
The conspiracy theory: Goldman was thrown a lifeline by its many friends in government. Said a former Lehman swaps trader: “They were a lot more connected in government than Fuld was. At the end of the day, that cost Lehman.”
The facts: Executives at Bear and Lehman had long complained to regulators about traders’ irresponsibly shorting their stocks and stoking investor panic. The S.E.C. short-selling ban was implemented after both firms failed and Goldman’s stock dropped 20 percent over three days.
The conspiracy theory: When Goldman’s competitors felt pressure from the shorts, regulators acted timidly. Once the short-sellers turned their attention to Goldman, the company used its influence to push through a ban.
The facts: Citigroup adviser and Goldman alum Robert Rubin mentored Geithner at Treasury and was one of Paulson’s contemporaries at Goldman.
The conspiracy theory: Geithner and Paulson came to the rescue of their friend. The bailout preserved Rubin’s big gig—he made more than $62 million from 2004 to 2007—despite claims he championed some of Citi’s riskiest strategies.
The facts: As a group, Goldman Sachs employees were among the largest donors to the Obama presidential campaign, giving more than $884,000. Former Goldman hotshots, including Rubin and New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, were reportedly candidates to become Obama’s Treasury secretary. Geithner was eventually picked.
The conspiracy theory: Obama’s victory and Geithner’s appointment are the completion of Goldman’s meticulously crafted plan to become a superpower. The firm now has the clout to impose its will on the financial markets—and the world.